The "Anthropic AI" Sell-Off: What I’m Buying

Lately, everyone is panicking because new AI from Anthropic might replace traditional software companies. This fear caused tech stocks to crash. But while others are panic selling, I started to nibble. I think the market is overreacting, putting great companies "on sale." I have started to add on QQQ Etf to my portfolio. Below I will share the reason why.

The program confirms exactly why I’m stepping in to buy while others are selling. If you look at the far right of the graph, you’ll see a cluster of green dots. These are automated 'buy signals' that appear from the program when it detects that the market has gotten "exhausted" from selling.

Right now, the price has dropped all the way to near to -2SD line (the bottom red dashed line). In simple terms, this means the QQQ is trading at a statistical extreme—it is deeply "on sale" relative to its long-term trend. While the "Anthropic Panic" dominates the headlines, this chart shows that the math has already moved into the "buy zone". Below is the statistic from the Back Testing, and it gives me the confidence to add some.

Back Testing Results: Signals Over Noise

Dataset Duration: Jan 1, 2010 – Feb 12, 2026 (16+ years of market history).

Metric	Value / Range	What it Means
Zone 2 (T2)	Reliable Trend Engine	The "Sweet Spot": A stable phase where the stock is likely to trend upward.
Median Return	~22% → 60%+	Profit Potential: The typical gain seen from this setup over time.
Median TTR	1–2 Days	Wait Time: How long it usually takes to get back to "even" or profit.
P90 TTR	3–9 Days	The Slow Bounce: In 90% of cases, the recovery happens within 9 days.
Max TTR	11–24 Days	Worst Case: The longest historical wait time before a recovery occurred.
Worst MAE	-0.8% to -4%	The "Ouch" Factor: The maximum amount the stock price dropped further after the signal.
Capital Lock Risk	Low–Moderate	Stuck Money: The risk of your cash being tied up in a losing position for a long time.

The reason I am "nibbling" here is simple: risk-to-reward asymmetry. According to the data, when the QQQ enters this zone (Zone 2), the "Ouch factor" (MAE) is historically low—usually between -0.8% to -4%. Compare that to a median return that can soar from 22% to over 60%, and the trade becomes a mathematical no-brainer.

Furthermore, I don't like my capital being "stuck" in a stagnant trade. The Median Time to Recovery (TTR) of just 1–2 days suggests that the market usually realizes its overreaction quickly. In 90% of cases (the P90 threshold), the recovery happens in under 9 days.

Invest using Data, Maths and Statistic.