Saturday, 6 June 2020

Market Favourite and Dropped out - DBS Bank and SATS

Most of us are familiar with these 2 companies, DBS Bank and SATS. SATS was in the news lately when MSCI SG decided to drop it from it's index, thus it was shone the spot light and of course selling pressure.
In another post from the SGX, one would noticed that these 2 counters are among the best and consistent performers. On average, they command a annualized return of 6% over 10 years. How bad can they be moving forward, not forgetting that they are around 5+% div yield now.
DBS Bank
This counter broke the key resistance and gap up, this is a very strong uptrend signal.

This counter was heavily sold down end of May, could be due to the MSCI SG announcement. One would expect that it will drop even further after the heavy selling. Instead, it made a reversal and just breakout of the key resistance.

Sunday, 31 May 2020

Reits - The Breakout

For those who have been braved enough to invest into the Reits counters during the March correction, most would have been at least 20% gain on paper by now. Not all the Reits are the same though, I classified them into 3 categories; the Leaders, Late Blommer and the catching up.

Today, I want to talk about the Late Blommer and they are still under their NAV. Over the last week, a few of these Reits counters made a breakout from their Norm.

Below are the 5 Reits which have broken the resistance and breakout.

Sunday, 19 April 2020

A Pen down thoughts for my kids - Investing during a CRISIS

The US market had good bull run for more than 11 years, and for the last few years, investors have been trying to guess which of those bad events happened were Black Swan. Unfortunately or fortunately, none of those (North Korea, Iran, Trade War, etc) are.
Now we have a perfect STORM, started with the COVID19 pandemic, oil crisis, disruption to global and regional supply chain, panic and huge dipped in consumers confidence.

It's been 4 mths now since the pandemic first created havoc and now hitting the global economy hard.  It doesnt seem to be getting better but stock market has rallied since Mar. correction.

I thought I'll pen down my thoughts on my investment mindset  during crisis like this, hopefully it can serve as a useful guide for you my kids in future when you start your investing journey. Even Warren Buffet has not seen this, and I believe you will faced with many more of these Black Swan events in your invest life time that is to come.

Cash Position
Below age of 30;
Prepare about 9mths of cash funds so that in the event whatever work you are doing has to be stopped (like now 2020), you have some cash to tide you over. As you will most likely be still staying with us, this amount should suffice.
After you have save your first pot of $50K, then you can start thinking about investing.

When you have more commitments and family, make sure you keep 3 years of expenses that your family will need. In this crisis, I have seen families and society been stressed tested and many people lost their jobs while their kids are still young. Without the 3 years of expenses as buffer, you will faced with immersed stress.

Lastly, always have 30% of cash warchest, ready to be deployed when necessary, like in Mar 2020 when there were 4 circuit breakers for US index. Even Warren Buffet has not seen this in his lifetime. When you see and hear in the news that the major index e.g US index, keeps hitting higher high (like in 2019), increase your warchest position to 50%.

When major index like Dow Jones and S&P500 crashed by 20% (like in Mar 2020), by definition, it is a bear market.

  1. In normal times, you are still investing in ETF, maybe once a month or a year.
  2. However, in crisis, Start to deploy your warchest and do it gradually as the worst can get more worst. Every 10% correction, deploy a certain percentage of your warchest.
  3. Buy the Global, S&P500 and STI ETF. This should form 90% of your portfolio.
  4. Most of the local stocks in your watchlist would have also fallen badly. E.g Reits and Blue chips fell more than 20% during the Mar 2020 crashed. Trust your evaluation metrics (using dividend, PE, PB, etc), and buy some. This should only form 10% or 20% of your portfolio.
  5. Trust me, when the crash like this happens, you will chicken out and tell your inner self to wait, and you will be ready scare to buy. When you have this feeling, actually, it is close to the right time to BUY. Forget about this inner self, just stick with your strategy.

When the stock market crashed like in Mar 2020, the feeling is really lousy. It gets worst when you see that your portfolio has gone down by 20 to 30%. Do remember that life is not just about stock market, you still have family, friends, hobbies, etc. It is not the end, it will always bounce back like before. Importantly you must have a strategy and stick with it.
If it affects you emotionally, and if you cannot take this kind of correction in stock market, then just invest only 30% of your asset or talk to me ... haha ...

Happy investing, kids.

Sunday, 29 December 2019

2019 Look Back

Another 2 more days, and we will enter 2020. For the investors, looking back at 2019, it has been a year filled with market excitements and the ever erratic Twitter messages from Mr Trump which most of the time causes Mr Market to react.

My overall portfolio performance as follow:

Dividend received = $16,800
Profit from sale of stocks = $14,000

Total profit 2019 = $30,800

Below are my worst performing counter:

  1. SIA Engineering (-25%)
  2. Sing Shipping (-15%)
  3. Sunningdale Tech (-20%)

Below are my best performing counter:

  1. UMS (40%)
  2. YZJ (22%)
  3. Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (19%)
  4. ComfortDelgro (18%)
My transactions for 2019, I had added the following stocks from the last 2 weeks:

  1. HongKong Land
  2. Genting SG
  3. YZJ
  4. SilverLakes
  5. Singapore O&G

Moving into 2020, let us all HUAT together ... ... :)

Sunday, 14 October 2018

Warning signs from these 2 stocks before last week crash

By now most of us would have heard or seen news about the Dow Jones correction last week, and one that affects major markets including STI. No one can predict what will happen to the market next, but out of curiosity, I noticed that these 2 counters (may have more) reacted 3 days before the correction. They may be more sensitive than the rest of the counters to what's happening, it is interesting but I am not sure if there is any correlation of any sort. Just for fun.
It may be interesting to watch these 2 counters next as it may be a leading indicator which one can use for the local market.