Saturday, 30 November 2013

Counter debrief: CSE Global

Instead of just showing one's portfolio like some of the other bloggers, I thought it is more useful to share the thought process of investing and divesting of one's counter. So here I will start with my first debrief for CSE Global.

  1. This counter came to my radar after I used SGX mygateway to screen for stocks based on a simple criteria of ROE of 13 and having a dividend of 5%. 
  2. Next I check the FA, didnt spend too much time to dig stuff, just a quick glance to make sure that revenue been growing, operating cash is healthy, Capex is low.
  3. I noticed that they have more than 1/3 of business in the US, and so I became more interested as I believe their business will be able to tap on the US recovery.
  4. I also used a quick litmus test using DCF from moneychimp; and realised that it's about $1.12.
  5. Having done the above, I then looked at the TA. The eclipse zone is where I have bought in to the counter around August. I saw that both the 10MA and 20MA has turned up, and that the 2nd test of the support level was higher than the previous one.
  6. The rectangle zone basically had reversed all the signals that was positive from my buy and by right I should have sold off but why didnt I. One of the reason is that it did not break the previous support, and also my position is small enough that I dont lose sleep over it.
  7. My oversight was that I did not add on when it broke out on the right hand side, maybe I was too busy to notice. <<Lesson learnt>>.

7. CSE Global management has announced that 28c of dividend will be given to shareholders as reported in Nextinsight. Looking at 1 - 6, I did not do what some investors will do to try and understand the management, some will say that I was lazy. To me this is beyond me, and I have neither the experience nor the time. Anyway, by doing that, will anyone knows that this was in the pipeline, dont think anyone will know unless you are involved in the decision making.

Related post: Stock scan

Saturday, 16 November 2013

What can you do in today's market

Let's face it, global market is no longer as cheap as it used to be. Dow Jones and S&P500 has continued to maintain at new high, Asia markets also soared the last week after reacting positively to Yellen led Fed Reserve. Traders like this period of market volatility because this is where they make money from short term trading. However, many of us will not have the time to watch our counters every minute or second. So what do you do now as investors?

Be sensitive to global fundamental. Just a few days ago, CISCO, the US Giant networking company forecast a steep drop in revenue and weaken orders from emerging markets. There are couple of networking equipment stocks listed in SGX, is this a good time now to invest in those, given the warnings from CISCO who is the leader of the pack.

Looking at numbers. Most of the people wants to be or learn from Warren Buffett, but the fact is that there is only 1 Warren and no one can think like him. Are you able to read and assess in-depth of the management team like him, would you buy the shares like his recent purchase of IBM and Davita, which based on TA is high. We are simple man with a day job so instead of trying to analyse with so many things, maybe we should keep it simple by looking at assets such as Price-to-book ratio. Walter Schloss was a legendary investors with proven results, he kept his method simple and there is no need to talk to and try to understand management. More about this man can be found here.

Patience. If you cant find anything to buy in the current market, then dont buy. Some of us uses TA to time our entry and exit, so if there is nothing at the moment, then wait.

Sunday, 3 November 2013

Financial tasks to do before year end

In less than 2 months, we will come to a closure for 2013. There are couple of financial tasks I thought one should try and do before the year ends.

Investment checkup. Review your stock investment and understand on those investment decisions that have not performed well or in a loss, what were the reasons. Was it due to insufficient understanding of the FA, was it due to timing, etc. Only when you understand your weakness and learn from others their strength continuously, then you can keep future losses to the minimal.

Portfolio realignment. For those who has embarked on the permanent portfolio(PP), it is probably time to rebalance your portfolio. There have been many surprises in the last 2 years where market such as Europe has gone up at least 30% despite the fact that they were having so much issues. Dow Jones have also keep hitting new highs. This also reminds us not to invest based on news but to adhere to the strict mechanics of the PP.

SRS. Isn't it cool to be a Singaporean. Apart from the America 401(k) tax saving scheme, in this region, we are probably the only country that have the similar scheme. Since the government has provided that channel, we should make full use of it. On surfing the web, I found these links which may be useful to you if you are interested.

  1. - this portal has got all the information that you need for SRS, from who is eligible, what is the max amount, which are the banks, what can you do with SRS, etc.
  2. - Just to highlight here, I am not OCBC employee, neither am I promoting anything here. I just like the SRS page which is very graphical and easy for laymen to understand. And besides, you get $30 Robinson vouchers, as part of their promotion now. I mean why not, free things is always nice :).
Charities. The fact that we are talking about the above means that we have done well in life, then shouldn't we give something back to the society especially to the less fortunate ones. With online portal, it is much easier to donate now, one can even charge to credit card.