In the 1990s, if you still remember the "Singapore Dream", it was neatly packaged into the 5Cs: Cash, Condo, Credit Card, Country Club, and most importantly, the Car. For some, it’s a status representation, for others, it’s a non-negotiable tool for survival. Young families trying to transport toddlers in the rain, or business owners rushing between client visits. But with COE premiums often swinging more wildly than a volatile tech stock, how do you know if you're overpaying? I have written an excel model just to understand this.
Mastering the "COE Swing": The Signal Win Rates
To answer this, I’ve moved away from coffeeshop hearsay and into the realm of data. I developed a model to backtest COE price action across four distinct "market regimes." The results—specifically the Signal Win Rates—reveal a fascinating story behind these data.
| Signal Regime | Backtest Win Rate | What it Means |
| Active Turn | 62% | The "Sweet Spot." Price is stable, but bidder momentum has just shifted positive. |
| Distress | 59% | "Blood in the streets." Premiums are at a major floor compared to the historical "fair value" line. |
| Major Pullback | 56% | A healthy cooling period where both price and bidder competition are dropping. |
| Crowded Dip | 44% | The Trap. Price looks lower, but the bidder backlog is surging. |
The model is robust because it doesn't just look at price; it tracks BQR (Bidder-to-Quota Ratio) Velocity. A 62% win rate on "Active Turns" proves that catching the uptrend early is statistically superior to "bottom fishing" during a Crowded Dip, where you’re often outbid. The BackTest Win Rate indicates the probability that the premium prices in the next two bidding rounds will be lower than the current one.
The Results: Excel Model
When we run the Excel algorithm, the output provides a granular look at the market's hidden gears. By calculating the Bidder Backlog, we can see the "latent demand" waiting to explode.
When the model triggers an Active Turn or Distress signal, it indicates a high probability—roughly 59% to 62% based on our backtesting—that the premium prices in the next two bidding rounds will be lower than the current one.
Below are some of the screenshots from the backtesting for CAT A.
Current Indicator: What Is It Saying?
Based on the latest data from the February 2026 tender, here is how the model interprets the current market regime:
ACTION: PATIENCE (STEADY)
Last Price: $106,501
Market Regime: Neutral
Value Score: +8% (Premium is currently 8% above the historical "fair value" line)
BQR Velocity: -0.03 (Minimal downward shift in bidder competition)
Bidder Backlog: 686 (The "queue" of unsuccessful bidders)
Currently, the indicator is flashing Patience. While we’ve seen a slight cooling in bidder velocity (-0.03), the Value Score of 8% tells us we are still trading slightly above the historical "fair value" line. Because we haven't hit the Active Turn or Distress thresholds yet, the math suggests there is no immediate rush to bid. However, buying car is more of an emotional thing than the brain and maths, most will still rush to bid :).
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