Sunday, 24 August 2014

Property prices will keep going up?

This is my first post about property, but it is not really about property as I am using this in relation to stocks. I am sure many of us heard about this statement many times, either from eager property sales person or in the showroom that you have visited. Many times, we were told that cant go wrong buying property in Singapore, it will keep going up in long term. Yes, the catch is in long term. Being someone who likes to play with data, I search the HDB portal for past resale transactions and guess what I found.
Below are 2 transactions of the same area over a span of 10 months and you can see for yourself how much it has dropped. Imagine if you are the one who had bought at the highest and realised that potentially you could lost more than $120K, I think you will not be able to sleep well, even if you have bought this to stay as home. I am also not able to comprehend why would someone spent over $600k for a HDB in a non-matuer estate. Just imagine how many more years you need to slogged to pay off the additional loan. It might be the case of the buyer has not done enough homework before buying and thus resulting in no margin of safety at all. 

Similarly in stocks, the entry buying price is important, regardless of how under value this stock can be fundamentally. In my next post, I may give an example of such case. However, in this post, I just want to highlight another point which is what George Soros has been doing and maybe it's time that we pay some attention to his action.
In the 13f which has just been announced, Soros Fund Management has increase a huge bear-call position on S&P500. Does he know something that majority of us do not? If someone of his talent and past successful investment records is so bearish about S&P500, should we take a step back and relook at our portfolio that we have currently.
Here are some of the news about his filing:

How do you feel about the current stock market, are you still bullish or are you not committing to any new position now?


Anonymous said...

Maybe bo bian le....want to stay near work place or near parents' place. If staying for long term, still ok I guess. I bought an EC in 2000. Prices crashed 60k in 2003 during SARS. Managed to sell for few hundred k profit in 2011. So ok lah. As long as for own stay, cannot cash out anyway.

Oldman said...

Well we wouldn't know the reason but losing so much money and possibly more, is not a good feeling ...