Thursday, 29 August 2013

Syria tension hits Asia markets

Financial markets in the region have been hit badly by the news of QE tapering and now the tensions in Syria. Most of the regional indices have reacted negatively and has corrected since, and some people in the forum said we are in Bear market. Most of the experts define the Bear market as a major correction of 20% to 25% from the high, are we there yet?
The correction as some have said was primarily due to funds pulling money out of Asia and putting back to US where the economy seems to be recovering well. The other aspect which caused this correction to happen was also due to the tensions in Syria which we are seeing that warships are being placed out in the Gulf region. This has caused some investors to take money off the table. Lastly, market confidence was also hit slightly, with the China Minzhong sell down and trading of this counter is still halted.

With the above, I was curious as when QE was first introduced how much has the so call 'hot money' cause the index to rise and how much has is corrected due to the recent events. The numbers are not pin point accurate but it serves a good gauge.

Below is a table which I have tabulated; and here's how this table makes up;
1. take the lowest point in 2010 after QE was introduced
2. take the recent high
3. Calculate the gains since 2010
4. % corrected looks at how much it has corrected from the last high

Markets Low(Jan 2010) High % gain Correction due to Syria and QE Tappering % corrected

Indonesia-JKSE 2500 5150 106 4026 -22

Phillipine-PSEI 3124 7400 137 5792 -22

Thailand-SET 730 1639 125 1275 -22

STI 2720 3464 27 3020 -13

It seems that 'Hot Money' loves everyone except us .... ha..... Looking at the chart, not bad if you have invested in the regional markets, all more than 100% gain. STI has only about 30% gain.

If you looked at the recent correction, it gets even more interesting.
STI - almost half of the gain was wiped out with the recent correction.

All other markets - The lost is not significant if you compared to the gains that they have made since 2010. If you have made more than 100% from the market, what is a 20% correction then?

With these data, we then know whether this is a healthy correction or not, and should we worry ??

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