In the past weeks, there have been numerous articles about oil and how the drop in oil price is going to have huge negative impact on some of the asset classes and even some of the major oil export countries. During my usual weekend browsing, I came across an interesting bloomberg video just last week on interview with Mark Mobius. His thinking about this oil 'crisis' is really different from the rest of the other professionals out there, he looks for opportunities that is going to surface from this temporary pessimism situation.
In summary of the video;
- Oil prices will recover to about $80-$90 next year
- Countries such as Indonesia, India, China had made use of this low oil price situation to embark on reform measures to remove petrol subsidies.
- Some of the middle east countries have huge oil reserve to tide over this period of low price
- Most Asia countries to benefit from this low oil price
- If there are no sanctions, he will be in Russia as it is really cheap. Other countries he is interested are China, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.
- Biggest concern is volatility, but it also present good opportunity to invest.
On last note, Warren Buffet bought a large stake into Exxon at the average price of $90, based on the below from Forbes. Did he know that just after 1 year, the share price now is even lower than what he paid for before. Again, it goes to show that no one can predict where the market is going, but it is the value that one should be after when opportunity arises.