Genting’s Profit Fell 34%. Something More Important Was Rising.

It is one of the oldest ironies in equity markets: a company reports a double-digit decline in earnings, and yet, its stock price starts climbing. Genting Singapore’s latest 1H2026 financial results look, at first glance, like a bit of a train wreck. Headline net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted 34% year-on-year to $156.1 million.

Yet, the market responded by bidding the stock up after the results announced. Equity markets are forward-looking discounting machines. While headline accounting figures tell us where a company has been, sequential operational metrics tell us where it is going. When you peel back the layers of Genting's interim statement, the evidence suggests that the business structurally bottomed in the first quarter of the year, and a quiet operational turnaround has already begun.

Why I just bought NVIDIA during this "dangerous" correction

While retail traders are panicking and calling this a AI bubble has burst, I just finished scaling into a core position in NVDA. This is a speculative opportunity trade. It might seem counterintuitive to buy when the price has dropped from the $220+ highs of June, but my simple logic is driven by a very specific signals that just fired.

The Setup: A Rare Confluence

We are currently in a CORRECTION regime, which is exactly where "asymmetric wealth transfer" happens. Over the last few weeks, as shown in the chart below, my model lit up with a classic cluster: a BUY_T2 on June 12, a rare CYCLE_T3 on July 6, and another BUY_T2 on July 24.

Why I bought EWY ETF After more than 30% Crash

Markets have a funny way of making you feel like a genius one week and a complete novice the next. While AI and semiconductor-related stocks have been crashing hard over the last few months, the ripple effects have hit the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) especially hard, with the index plummeting over 30% from its recent peak. Just last week, we witnessed a stomach-churning more than 10% crash in a mere 10 trading days

For the retail investors who chased the parabolic top near $190–$210, this is the point of maximum anxiety. However, the chart below shows that this "crash" has actually triggered a high-conviction BUY_T2 signal within a Correction regime.

Here is why I’m stepping in to for a speculative trade while others are selling.

The Data: Why BUY_T2 Matters

When the market enters a "Correction" regime, the BUY_T2 signal acts as a mean-reversion re-entry trigger. Essentially, the market has overextended to the downside as shown in the chart below..

I’ve pulled the technical statistics from the backtest below to show you why the risk/reward here is so asymmetric:

Historical Performance: BUY_T2 Signal (CORRECTION Regime)

Metric	Value	What it means in plain English
Sample Size	14 Instances	This signal has appeared 14 times in similar market conditions.
Recovery Rate	100%	Every single time this signal has flashed in a correction, the price has eventually recovered.
Med R60 (60-Day Return)	0.1273	The median profit 60 days after the signal is roughly 12.7%.
Med MAE (Median Pain)	-0.24%	The "Median Maximum Adverse Excursion." This is the median amount the price dropped after the signal before heading up.
P90 MAE (Worst Pain)	0.00%	The "worst-case" drawdown for 90% of the historical cases. Interestingly, in this regime, there was effectively no further drop in 90% of instances.
Med TTR (Recovery Time)	1 Day	The median number of days it took for the price to get back to the "entry price" and start making money.
P90 TTR (Worst Recovery)	1 Day	In 90% of historical cases, the price recovered to the entry point within just one day.

The Game Plan: How I’m Trading this

The market is currently trapped in a cycle of fear because of the rapid 10-day drop. But the backtest tells a different story: a 100% historical recovery rate and a median 60-day upside of 12.7%. I’m not just throwing everything in at once, but in tranches. 

S&P500 Is Still Not Cheap Enough. My Model Found 3 Stocks Are Flashing Buy Right Now

In a recent post-retirement interview, Warren Buffett said this dip in US stock indices is nothing compared to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/2009. And honestly, he's right. Both the Dow Jones and S&P500 have barely dipped below 10% — technically, that's not even a correction, let alone a crash.

Now, regular readers of this blog know I've been working on a model to take emotions completely out of my investment decisions. And I've updated the model to use 2 anchor dates — one for the Macro, one for the Cycle.

For Macro, I use March 2009 (the GFC bottom) as the floor. For Cycle, I use March 2020 (COVID crash) as the floor. Simply put, the GFC low represents the long-term structural baseline, while the COVID low marks the last major cycle bottom. The model then runs the current stock price against these 2 floors and flags whenever price is testing either level.

So what did the signals tell me? Here's what I found.

Mag 7 Correction: This Mag 7 Stock Just Flashed a Buy Signal

Updated(4 April); Here is the update using the enhanced model of comparing to the anchor Macro date(GFC) and cycle date(COVID). This is the model which I have recently enhanced.

As shown in the chart below, in Feb., the signal was flashing Macro T2 and Dual T2. 

Macro T2 - this means that the price is cheap relative to both the short-term and the long-term history. And that this isn't just a localised dip; it is touching the long-term 'floor' of the entire post-2008 bull market.

Dual T2 - a Strong Accumulation signal. It means the stock is offering a significant discount, and that discount isn't just backed by one reference point — it's being validated by both historical support pillars, Macro and Cycle, at the same time. Two anchors confirming the same thing simultaneously.

 BackTest

Regime	Signal	Recovery	P90 MAE	Med TTR	Med R120
BULL	BUY_T1	1	-2.05%	1	0.2505414211
BULL	BUY_T2	1	-1.99%	1.5	0.2833161971
BULL	DUAL_T2	1	0.00%	1	0.4845446717
BULL	MACRO_T3	1	-4.72%	3	0.4882672341
BULL	MACRO_T2	1	-6.88%	3	0.4226849607
BEAR	DUAL_T3	1	-8.53%	4	0.2373489702
BEAR	MACRO_T2	1	-9.16%	1	NA
BEAR	CYCLE_T2	1	-18.99%	1	0.003932309102
BEAR	MACRO_T1	1	-23.96%	1	NA
BEAR	DUAL_T2	0.71	-17.51%	1	0.3156479201
BEAR	BUY_T1	1	-17.27%	16	0.09898475818

Based on the backtest results, in Bear regime, for Dual T2 signal, there is a 10% chance the price dips further 17.5% after entry. And for Macro T2 signal, there is a 10% chance the price dips further 9% after entry.

<Update END>

For years, the Magnificent Seven were the "Buy-and-Forget" staples of everyone's portfolio. But recent months have seen these tech titans stumble. 

What’s driving the sell-off? The ongoing Middle East crisis did not affect the stock price of this particular stock much. It’s a mix of "Agentic Panic"—fears that new AI agents from firms like Anthropic will disrupt existing software moats—and rising scepticism over whether the massive billions spent on chips will actually translate into bottom-line profits. Add in a shift in interest rate expectations, and you have a recipe for a tactical pullback.

How to Spot the Exact Moment COE Premiums Bottoming Out

In the 1990s, if you still remember the "Singapore Dream", it was neatly packaged into the 5Cs: Cash, Condo, Credit Card, Country Club, and most importantly, the Car. For some, it’s a status representation, for others, it’s a non-negotiable tool for survival. Young families trying to transport toddlers in the rain, or business owners rushing between client visits. But with COE premiums often swinging more wildly than a volatile tech stock, how do you know if you're overpaying? I have written an excel model just to understand this.

The "Anthropic AI" Sell-Off: What I’m Buying

Lately, everyone is panicking because new AI from Anthropic might replace traditional software companies. This fear caused tech stocks to crash. But while others are panic selling, I started to nibble. I think the market is overreacting, putting great companies "on sale." I have started to add on QQQ Etf to my portfolio. Below I will share the reason why.

Why I Am Not Buying Gold or Silver Now

Gold and silver are having a moment. Prices have pulled back from recent highs, and volatility remains elevated.

This is not a statement about where gold or silver will go next. It is simply a description of how I make decisions—and why, based on that process, I am not adding gold or silver at current levels.

I Buy Based on Deviation, Not Narratives

Gold and silver are often framed around the same set of arguments: inflation, government debt, currency debasement, and geopolitical risk. These narratives are not new. They have existed for decades and resurface whenever prices rise.

What changes is not the story, but the distance between price and its long-term trend. When I look at gold and silver today, I do not see assets trading below their historical mean. I see prices that remain above it.

Market Sentiment Engine: Mr. Market's "Mood" for 31 Jan 2026

Most people trade based on "gut feel." When I first started looking for a data driven method, I only found Trends and Standard Deviations (the "average" movement of a stock). It is a good guiding method, but it has flaws: in a bad market, "low" can always go lower. To fix that, I built a custom engine that doesn't just look at price—it looks at Market Sentiment holistically. Think of it like having a weather satellite for the stock market. It doesn't predict the future, but it tells you exactly what the current "climate" is so you don’t get caught in a storm without an umbrella.

The Engine Behind

To keep us from making emotional mistakes, the engine uses three smart guardrails:

1. Automated Regime Detection The market has two modes: Bull and Bear. The engine automatically detects which "Regime" we are in. In a Bear regime, the engine gets "pickier," stopping us from "catching a falling knife" just because a price looks cheap.

STI at All-Time High: My Simple Game Plan In Today's Market

Happy 2026, everyone! If you’ve been watching the news and charts lately, you’ll notice that global equities are hitting All-Time Highs (ATH). Even our local Straits Times Index (STI) has been on a record-breaking run, recently breaching the 4,800 mark.

When markets are this "hot," it’s natural to feel a mix of excitement and "FOMO" (Fear Of Missing Out). But for someone who have been through times like this before (E.g 1997/98, dot com, GFC, etc), I like to look at the numbers before jumping in.

The Reality Check: PE Ratio & Standard Deviation

To understand if we are overpaying, I look at two "health markers":

Can You Afford to Retire? Use This Calculator

I have always wonder if I am ready to retire or force to retire (due to layoffs) base on my assets. However, I was not able to find one that is able to do projections that includes SRS and CPF Life payout. Thus I started out this mini-project to come out with one that is able to show how long my retirement funds can last and till at what age. I have also included the Monte Carlo simulation to stress test this portfolio and tell you the percentage of success base on your input parameters.

Most of the input fields are self-explainatory. I will explain these for clarity.

May be worth having a look at this asset class now - from Howard Marks memo

 

Howard Marks is a veteran investor and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management. He published his memo about his observations and thoughts on the market, and they are widely read by many investors, including Warren Buffet. In his recent memo and interviews, he mentioned that the credit market offers a better deal now than equities. After some research, I found these 2 Etfs, one is listed in the Singapore Stock Exchange and one listed in London Stock Exchange, so that investors will not be subjected to the 30% tax. 

I added these over the last few weeks of market volatility

It was a roller coaster ride the last few weeks with major indices crashing into the Bear market zone. If you have read my previous blog here, you will know that the 2nd tranche of warchest will be deployed into the index etf due to the market condition then. The approach is mechanical, we are not economist, dont need to know reason why market dropped, just need to know if market has presented a value at any time. In a volatile market like now, one does not have to worry too much if you have done your proper asset allocation as in the post here.

Apart from the index etf, I have also invested some bullets into the Singapore market. Most of the value investors have waited long as the market(except for Reits) was expensive then. And this is what I bought.

How I invest (Mechanically) during a market correction and it works

Just last week, as major market indices dipped into the correction zones, I finally had the chance to open up my war chest and deployed first tranche of cash into the market. This is all thanks to the current US President, whom has made decisions to roll out policies that is causing uncertainty to the US and world economy. And Mr Market hates uncertainty, and thus the sell off follows. 

In the past few weeks, I've seen financial youtuber and analyst telling investors to buy the dip. Some of them said when the indexes correct to 10%, they will start buying, some use certain economic indicators to determine when to start buying. But none shared the step by step method to show how to buy during a market correction. In this post, I will be sharing the method that I am using and why I started buying last week.

Navigating 2025 Market Uncertainty: The Classic 60/40 Portfolio Approach

Happy 2025 All. As 2025 unfolds, many analysts are anticipating a potential market downturn fueled by high interest rates, slowing global growth, and persistent geopolitical tensions. Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump emerging as the next US President, is injecting a layer of volatility into markets. 

As part of a defensive strategy, many have suggested to using alternative investment instruments and diversified models like the All-Weather Portfolio to mitigate risks from market volatility. While these approaches offer innovative solutions, in this article, I aim to demonstrate—using data-driven insights—why the classic 60/40 equities and bonds allocation continues to be a reliable and effective strategy.

Can Your Portfolio Survive the Lost Decade? Mine Did (With Backtesting)!

In my previous post, I discussed using a 5.5% return to sustain a consistent drawdown for retirement expenses, primarily through investments in index funds or ETFs. In this post, I’ll dive into how I’m currently implementing this strategy as I prepare for my future retirement.

Since this is my retirement fund, ensuring its resilience during economic downturns is critical. For instance, it’s essential that the portfolio remains sustainable even during harsh periods like the "Lost Decade", a time when the return of the S&P 500 was Negative. To address this, I will be backtesting my portfolio against this worst-case scenario in market history. This helps me evaluate its performance during extended periods of low or negative returns, ensuring that my strategy is robust enough to withstand such challenges. I’ll also explain why this portfolio is particularly suitable for my retirement goals.

Do You Need $3M to Retire? Breaking Down the Numbers

In my previous blog post, I discussed key findings about retirement from the OCBC Financial Wellness Index 2024 report. These findings were also highlighted in local papers, where it was mentioned that retirees would need an estimated $1.5 million to $3 million to sustain monthly expenses of $6,000 to $12,000.

This is quite disheartening because based on the report below, Singapore has approximately 350,000 millionaires, which means over 90% of the population may fall short of this threshold. This raises a sobering question: Are the majority of Singaporeans destined to work indefinitely to sustain their retirement lifestyles?

Fewer Singaporeans Are Preparing for Retirement—WHY? : OCBC Survey 2024

The latest OCBC Financial Wellness Index reveals a concerning trend: the percentage of Singaporeans actively planning for retirement has dropped from 60% to 54%. This means that nearly half (46%) of respondents have not begun preparing for their retirement. 

Alarmingly, one in four Singaporeans only plans to start—or has just started—retirement planning in their 50s or later.

The Big Bond Question after Bessent to Treasury: Are the Tables Finally Turning?

After the recent lowering of interest rates, bond prices didn’t rise as many had expected. Instead, they dipped further, though they didn’t fall below previous lows. Since then, bond prices have remained relatively stable, neither surging nor collapsing. However, the appointment of Scott Bessent to the Treasury has brought new optimism to the market. Bond prices have started to respond positively, and will this marks the start of a recovery.

These 3 reasons Could Fuel the Continuation of the Chinese Stock Market Rally

Post-COVID, foreign investors significantly reduced Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China as shown in the chart below. However, as China has launched it's stimulus package to save its economy, these investors now face a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) on potential opportunities in the stock market and are returning as seen in the last week. But this will take time.