S&P500 Is Still Not Cheap Enough. My Model Found 3 Stocks Are Flashing Buy Right Now

In a recent post-retirement interview, Warren Buffett said this dip in US stock indices is nothing compared to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/2009. And honestly, he's right. Both the Dow Jones and S&P500 have barely dipped below 10% — technically, that's not even a correction, let alone a crash.

Now, regular readers of this blog know I've been working on a model to take emotions completely out of my investment decisions. And I've updated the model to use 2 anchor dates — one for the Macro, one for the Cycle.

For Macro, I use March 2009 (the GFC bottom) as the floor. For Cycle, I use March 2020 (COVID crash) as the floor. Simply put, the GFC low represents the long-term structural baseline, while the COVID low marks the last major cycle bottom. The model then runs the current stock price against these 2 floors and flags whenever price is testing either level.

So what did the signals tell me? Here's what I found.

Mag 7 Correction: This Mag 7 Stock Just Flashed a Buy Signal

Updated(4 April); Here is the update using the enhanced model of comparing to the anchor Macro date(GFC) and cycle date(COVID). This is the model which I have recently enhanced.

As shown in the chart below, in Feb., the signal was flashing Macro T2 and Dual T2. 

Macro T2 - this means that the price is cheap relative to both the short-term and the long-term history. And that this isn't just a localised dip; it is touching the long-term 'floor' of the entire post-2008 bull market.

Dual T2 - a Strong Accumulation signal. It means the stock is offering a significant discount, and that discount isn't just backed by one reference point — it's being validated by both historical support pillars, Macro and Cycle, at the same time. Two anchors confirming the same thing simultaneously.

 BackTest

Regime	Signal	Recovery	P90 MAE	Med TTR	Med R120
BULL	BUY_T1	1	-2.05%	1	0.2505414211
BULL	BUY_T2	1	-1.99%	1.5	0.2833161971
BULL	DUAL_T2	1	0.00%	1	0.4845446717
BULL	MACRO_T3	1	-4.72%	3	0.4882672341
BULL	MACRO_T2	1	-6.88%	3	0.4226849607
BEAR	DUAL_T3	1	-8.53%	4	0.2373489702
BEAR	MACRO_T2	1	-9.16%	1	NA
BEAR	CYCLE_T2	1	-18.99%	1	0.003932309102
BEAR	MACRO_T1	1	-23.96%	1	NA
BEAR	DUAL_T2	0.71	-17.51%	1	0.3156479201
BEAR	BUY_T1	1	-17.27%	16	0.09898475818

Based on the backtest results, in Bear regime, for Dual T2 signal, there is a 10% chance the price dips further 17.5% after entry. And for Macro T2 signal, there is a 10% chance the price dips further 9% after entry.

<Update END>

For years, the Magnificent Seven were the "Buy-and-Forget" staples of everyone's portfolio. But recent months have seen these tech titans stumble. 

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How to Spot the Exact Moment COE Premiums Bottoming Out

In the 1990s, if you still remember the "Singapore Dream", it was neatly packaged into the 5Cs: Cash, Condo, Credit Card, Country Club, and most importantly, the Car. For some, it’s a status representation, for others, it’s a non-negotiable tool for survival. Young families trying to transport toddlers in the rain, or business owners rushing between client visits. But with COE premiums often swinging more wildly than a volatile tech stock, how do you know if you're overpaying? I have written an excel model just to understand this.