S&P500 Is Still Not Cheap Enough. My Model Found 3 Stocks Are Flashing Buy Right Now

In a recent post-retirement interview, Warren Buffett said this dip in US stock indices is nothing compared to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/2009. And honestly, he's right. Both the Dow Jones and S&P500 have barely dipped below 10% — technically, that's not even a correction, let alone a crash.

Now, regular readers of this blog know I've been working on a model to take emotions completely out of my investment decisions. And I've updated the model to use 2 anchor dates — one for the Macro, one for the Cycle.

For Macro, I use March 2009 (the GFC bottom) as the floor. For Cycle, I use March 2020 (COVID crash) as the floor. Simply put, the GFC low represents the long-term structural baseline, while the COVID low marks the last major cycle bottom. The model then runs the current stock price against these 2 floors and flags whenever price is testing either level.

So what did the signals tell me? Here's what I found.

SPY ETF

As shown in the chart below, the current signal is flashing 'Buy T2'. This means price has moved significantly away from its established trend, but we're still nowhere near the Macro or Cycle lows. Not a crisis, just a discount.

If you're doing selective DCA, this is actually a decent spot to be adding in slowly.

QQQ ETF

As shown in the chart below, current signal is flashing ' Macro T2', this means that the price is cheap relative to both the short-term and the long-term history. And that this isn't just a localised dip; it is touching the long-term 'floor' of the entire post-2008 bull market.

IGV ETF

As shown in the chart below, February 2026 threw up two signals — Dual T3 and Macro T2.

Dual T3 is the strongest signal in the system. It means price has hit the absolute limit of a crash across every timeframe the model tracks — in this case, both GFC and COVID lows. When both signals fire at the same time, it means price is sitting at a rare intersection where every major historical support line converges.

IHF ETF

As shown in the chart below, the current signal is 'Dual T2' — a Strong Accumulation signal. It means the stock is offering a significant discount, and that discount isn't just backed by one reference point — it's being validated by both historical support pillars, Macro and Cycle, at the same time. Two anchors confirming the same thing simultaneously.

One thing I want to be upfront about — this model does not catch the absolute bottom. No system can, and anyone who claims otherwise is lying to you.

From the backtests, even when you buy at these signals, there's still a 10% chance the price dips a further 8% after entry. But here's the thing — you're not going in blind. You already know what the historical worst case looks like at this entry point.

The above is not any financial advice, it is to provide me a history record when i look back in a year's time to validate this model.